Session: Session 1. Asset Management Systems

Paper Number: 118983

118983 - Evaluating Hydro-Québec’s Decarbonization Pathways Using Integrated Asset-Centric Electrical Power System Evolution Modeling 

As world economies strive to achieve carbon neutrality and implement ambitious decarbonization goals, electrical utilities are faced with the colossal challenge of maintaining reliability while ensuring new demand on the electrical system is met, all at a reasonable cost to rate payers. New infrastructure and capacity expansion required to meet net-zero goals coupled with ageing infrastructure puts enormous pressure on utilities. Massive investments are needed to upgrade and renew the electrical system, however capital and labor resources are limited. Also, the pace and magnitude of the increase in demand as well as in new generation interconnections, combined with the surging influx of intermittent renewable energy sources, adds an additional layer of uncertainty to long term investment planning outlooks. Consequently, strategic decisions regarding where and when utilities allocate capital going forward are evermore critical.

Contemporary electrical utilities are part of the critical national infrastructure that function in an increasingly complex operating and business environment and are exposed to deep uncertainties. In today’s energy landscape, utilities tend to operate in fragmented organizational sub-units due to regulatory constraints, with risk analysis and strategic decisions often made in silos. This approach impedes energy leaders and policy makers from seeing the big picture and assessing the overall monetary and social cost of maintaining grid reliability in the decarbonized future. In order to help decision makers navigate this unprecedented era in the energy industry, advanced data-driven tools and a consolidated approach to asset management risk analysis are essential.

In response to Québec’s energy transition towards a carbon free economy, Hydro-Québec developed an integrated asset-centric electrical power system evolution model to support the decision-making process in investment prioritization and capital allocation. The model performs financial analysis and integrated asset management planning, providing a coordinated and high-level global view of investments in asset maintenance and replacement, as well as capacity expansion for targeted service levels. It essentially generates CapEx and OpEx projections based on different forecasted energy mixes and demand scenarios, as well as intended reliability objectives and anticipated constraints.

The model leverages big data to parametrize asset characteristics, condition, and performance, and incorporates asset degradation models based on traditional industry methodologies, as well as deterministic and probabilistic planning models to generate asset investment scenarios. It utilizes a series of underpinning decision-trees and a hierarchy of interactions between asset families in combination with Monte Carlo simulations to determine how assets evolve over time. Applying a holistic approach to asset management and risk analysis, the model takes into consideration the interactions between all assets that comprise the energy system as a whole, from generation, to transmission, to distribution.

The objective of this paper is to describe Hydro-Québec’s integrated asset-centric electrical power system evolution model model and how it can be utilized to support decision makers in the energy industry prioritize investments more effectively. It will also outline the many benefits of the model as an essential decision support tool that can quickly deliver cost and risk projections, allowing decision makers to tailor capital allocations according to risk level and capital constraints. Moreover, the paper will discuss the advantages of modeling the energy system as a vertically integrated structure for asset management purposes, allowing for consolidated risk analysis, coherent expansion planning and adapted maintenance schedules, resulting in more cost-effective solutions.

Presenting Author: Vito De Luca Hydro-Québec

Presenting Author Biography: Vito De Luca is a senior transmission system planning engineer currently working in strategic asset management modeling at Hydro-Québec. He has seasoned experience in the field of long term transmission system planning, interconnection project development, HVDC systems, renewable energy integration, and power system modeling. He holds a bachelor’s degree in Electrical Engineering from Concordia University in Montreal, Canada.